FES Documents

Download our latest FES 2024 Document suite and check out the archive of older FES documents.

Download the full suite of FES 2024 documents

FES: NESO Pathways to Net Zero 2024

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The Future Energy Scenarios publication presents a number of strategic and credible energy futures to support Great Britain’s decarbonisation journey to net zero. 

FES: Pathways at a Glance

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For faster reading, download our FES summary document, which highlights the key headlines and statistics from the full publication. 

FES: Data Workbook 2024

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All the graphs, charts and supporting data published in FES 2024 from our modelling. If using Microsoft Edge, you will need to download the file rather than view online. 

Changes from FES 2023 to FES 2024

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This document summarises the key differences between FES 2023 and FES 2024. We present a high-level summary of changes with more detail available in the main FES 2024 report.

FES: Energy Background Document

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The purpose of our Energy Background Document is to provide supplementary content and background to underpin the main FES 2024 document. 

FES Pathway Assumptions 2024

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Find out what assumptions we used in our models for FES 2024 

Regional breakdown of FES data (workbook)

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FES modelling data segmented by region 

Modelling Methods 2024

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Learn more about the models we used to base the scenarios on.

FES: Pathway Assumptions 2024 (Workbook)

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This workbook is intended to provide additional information about the main assumptions made and data used in creating the 2024 FES: ESO Pathways to Net Zero Documents and data workbook.

FES Archive

The FES archive dates back to 2011, and all of our documents are publicly available for download.

2024 archive

2024 archive

Consumer Building Blocks project

The Consumer Building Blocks innovation project, delivered alongside the Centre for Sustainable Energy and ERM, developed a model for predicting how consumers may adapt their energy consumption in a range of different factors. You can find the slides, a recording from the webinar that we hosted and the data from the project here:

2023 archive

Below you can find the 2023 FES document suite.

 

Watch the FES 2023 launch event

Watch our FES 2023 launch event from the 10 July, featuring Fintan Slye, Executive Director at ESO, Emma Pinchbeck, Chief Executive of Energy UK, and Daisy Powell-Chandler, Head of Energy and Environment at Public First.

More documents

2022 archive

The Future Energy Scenarios (FES 2022) set out credible ways that the UK can achieve Net Zero by 2050, as well as the UK Government’s commitment to a decarbonised electricity system by 2035. Based on extensive stakeholder engagement, research and modelling, each scenario considers how much energy we might need; where it could come from; and how we maintain a system that is reliable.

Below you can find the 2022 FES document suite.

You can also still watch a recording of our briefing event to mark the launch of the 2022 edition of our Future Energy Scenarios report.

Below you can find the 2021 FES document suite.

Our podcast series explores key themes from Future Energy Scenarios 2021, assessing the energy Britain needs, examining where it could come from, how it needs to change and what this means for consumers, society and the energy system itself. 

Our latest Future of Energy podcast looks at the future of hydrogen. Hydrogen is becoming a vital source of energy, but how does it actually help us produce energy and how will it be used to replace some of our current energy sources? In this episode Samantha Simmonds talks with Becky Hart, UK Energy Strategy Manager, and Robert Gibson, Whole System and Gas Supply Manager, to find out how hydrogen is becoming the fuel of the future and how it will help Great Britain achieve its net-zero target.

Listen and subscribe

You can hear the podcast series on Spotify or Apple.

FES 2020 Virtual Conference

During the week of 27 July, we held a series of virtual events to share the key insight from our FES 2020 analysis. This included a launch on Monday 27 July to present the FES 2020 key messages and the significant findings from the analysis. 

On Wednesday 29 July and Thursday 30 July, we hosted a series of deep dive sessions to look at specific topics in more detail.

You can now watch the events on catch-up.

FES 2020 launch event

FES 2020 Documents

All FES 2020 documents including:

FES in 5, Data workbooks, Scenario framework  and Modelling methods can be found here:

Deep Dives - 29 - 30 July 2020

Watch the deep dive sessions including a series of short presentations followed by Q&A time with the team.

Call for Evidence for Future Energy Scenarios (FES) 2019

Throughout September, we ran a Call for Evidence as a start to our work for FES 2019. We wanted to provide ample opportunity for our growing stakeholder base to engage with us and to help us develop next year’s scenarios. In this Call for Evidence we explored a range of energy demand and supply issues and invited comments on these. You can see a summary of the responses and questions below. Please note that the views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in the responses belong to those that completed the Call for Evidence and do not necessarily reflect those of National Grid. We will take all the comments into account when developing FES 2019.

  • In total, we received 70 responses to the Call for Evidence
  • An initial summary of the responses to the Call for Evidence can be found here
  • Click here to see the responses from the stakeholders who gave us permission to share them
  • For the full list of questions we asked, click here 

Stakeholder Engagement Workshops

Our generic stakeholder workshops this year were held on 18 October in Warwick and 25 October in London. Both events were well attended by a wide spectrum of stakeholders from across the energy industry and beyond who gave us valuable feedback on key themes for FES 2019 and on issues emerging from the Call for Evidence.

To view the morning presentation from the events, which includes a high-level overview of the Call for Evidence and an update about the changing role of the System Operator, click here. 

Themed workshops

On Thursday 11th October, we co-organised a themed workshop with stakeholders from a broad range of sectors to discuss the Future of Electric Vehicles. Read a summary of the outputs of the event here. 

The Future of Heat workshop was held on 20 November and was attend by a wide representation from the heating and power industry. Click here for the presentation and here for the summary of the outputs.

FES 2019 Documents

All FES 2019 documents including:

FES in 5, Data workbooks, Scenario framework, Modelling methods and our Comparison document can be found here:

FES 2019 launch conference - videos

FES 2019 launch conference - presentations

FES 2018 was published on Thursday 12th July 2018.

For an overview of FES 2018 including the key messages, watch the short animation film below:

To download any of the 2018 FES copies, click on the links.

The main FES provides an overview of key areas and alongside, we also publish:

  • FES in 5, which is a summary document with key headlines and statistics from FES;
  • Scenario Framework document (v2 updated 7 Feb 2019) which details all the assumptions that are used as inputs into our models;
  • Data Workbook (v2 updated 17 July 2018) which contains the outputs from the numerous models, including detailed tables, graphs and charts;
  • Modelling Methods document which contains information on our modelling methodology and assumptions;
  • Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) document (v3 updated 3 September 2018).

To find out more about what the key changes are from FES 2017 to 2018, check out the two documents below:

Regional breakdown of FES data

Our Future Energy Scenarios are intended to identify a range of credible scenarios across gas and electricity on a GB-wide basis. In order to support planning of the GB electricity transmission system, we split the GB-level data down into regional data sets using best available data. These data sets are published in November as part of the Electricity Ten Year Statement (ETYS).

In order to provide visibility and transparency of this work, below we have published a spreadsheet containing draft regional data for electricity in the four FES 2018 scenarios. We have also published the number of heat pumps and domestic electric vehicles per grid supply point in the four FES2018 scenarios. This data forms a starting point for our network analysis and should be considered draft at this stage as it may be modified for planning purposes in the subsequent processes.

To assist with understanding of the spreadsheets, we have also published the corresponding Spatial Methodology Document below:

To watch the live-stream recordings and presentations from the conference, click on the links below.

Morning presentation slides which include:

 Afternoon presentation slides which include the:

Presentation slides:

Afternoon breakout session presentations:

Stakeholder engagement workshops were held in October 2017. To see the presentations that were used for the four events, click on the links below: