Future Energy Scenarios (FES)

Key Message and Actions

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Carbon budgets 

• The UK has met the first three carbon budgets and is currently in the Fourth Carbon Budget period. The Sixth Carbon Budget (2033-2037) will be the first net zero compliant carbon budget. 
• Decisive action is needed to increase the pace of decarbonisation across all sectors in line with the Sixth Carbon Budget. Our pathways require negative emissions technologies, despite the rapid and heavy decarbonisation modelled. These must be used to offset emissions in sectors that are hard to decarbonise. 

Demand reduction 

• Demand reduction measures include energy efficiency improvements and changes in consumer behaviour. These measures reduce net emissions, as less energy input is needed to meet demand.  
• Shifting demand away from peak times can reduce emissions by avoiding additional high carbon generation. 

Low carbon energy production 

• A decarbonised power sector represents a critical milestone in the decarbonisation of the whole energy system. It can enable full decarbonisation of sectors such as transport and heat and can also hold the key to unlocking other energy vectors, such as hydrogen production. 
• Our pathway modelling considers net zero to be the point at which emissions to atmosphere are fewer than emissions removed. Low levels of unabated gas generation (up to 5%) are compatible with a net zero power system alongside BECCS. 
• It is possible to go further and faster in the decarbonisation of Great Britain's power sector.  

Low carbon flexibility 

• We need low carbon flexibility to operate a net zero energy system. This means switching from unabated gas to low carbon fuels and technologies.  
• This, alongside electricity, CO2 and hydrogen storage, can help reduce emissions. 

Fuel switching 

• All net zero pathways require fuel switching from carbon intensive fuels to low carbon alternatives. This is particularly important for decarbonising heat and transport.  
• Electrification is an important fuel switching option across all sectors, as is the production of hydrogen with electrolysis.  
• Fuel switching will come with different challenges and opportunities in each sector, including the technological readiness of options, the rate at which they can be installed and the wider system benefits and trade-offs. 

Carbon capture and storage capacity 

• All net zero pathways require the development of carbon capture and storage (CCS) capacity.  
• CCS is used across the decarbonisation of power (low carbon dispatchable power), industry, hydrogen production (gas reformation) and negative emissions technologies. 
• The broad range of sector use for CCS networks will bring deployment challenges as different 
• sectors begin to make use of these networks in different locations, at different times and to store 
• different relative amounts of CO2. 

Carbon removals 

• Negative emissions technologies (NETs) are essential across all our net zero pathways. These are not used instead of other credible decarbonisation approaches. The deployment of NETs requires CCS pipeline capacity. 
• Further demonstration of NETs is required to prove commercial readiness. Robust emissions accounting standards are also needed to ensure both investor and public confidence. 

Transport  

• All pathways follow the Zero Emissions Vehicle (ZEV) mandate for electric car and van uptakes. Similar policies are needed for other vehicle sectors, as this provides a clear strategic route to net zero.  
• There is a need to build consumer trust in smart chargers to allow users to realise cost savings while helping manage the electricity system.   
• More investment is needed in public charge points to keep pace with electric vehicle uptake, targeting on route rapid chargers and competitive off-peak charging for consumers without home chargers.  

Residential  

• Market-wide-Half-hourly-settlement (MHHS) is needed to facilitate widespread adoption of time-of-use tariffs and demand side flexibility.  
• Improved insulation measures are required in all pathways regardless of the heating technology, from aiding heat pump installation to reducing bills for hydrogen heat pumps with higher running costs.  
• Even with support for hydrogen for heat in 2026, heat pump and district heating need to be accelerated to meet the Sixth Carbon Budget in the mid-2030s.  

Industrial and Commercial  

• Hydrogen use should be prioritised for hard-to-electrify sectors, including high temperature and combustible industrial applications.   
• A clear, comprehensive carbon accounting policy, including a carbon border adjustment mechanism, is required to drive adoption of low carbon fuels.  

Electricity supply 

• Generation capacity is expected to increase rapidly across all our pathways to meet increased demand from electrification of heat and transport.  
• Most of this generation capacity will be weather dependent. Investment in renewable energy supply chains, market reform and improvements to the planning and connections processes could unlock huge opportunities around the delivery of renewable energy in Great Britain.  
• Our pathways also show varying levels of nuclear, bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), low carbon dispatchable power, interconnected flows and electricity storage. 

Natural gas supply 

• Natural gas plays a crucial role in meeting Great Britain’s energy demands. It will have an evolving role to play by 2050, coupled with carbon capture and storage for power and producing hydrogen. 
• The role of natural gas combined with CCS in 2050 means that both gas and hydrogen infrastructure will be required. Any conversion of infrastructure to hydrogen must consider this. The ongoing costs associated with lower utilisation of assets alongside security of supply must also be considered. 

Hydrogen supply 

• Great Britain has the potential to become a world leader in the production of low carbon hydrogen. While there is already an established global hydrogen supply chain, this must now transition to low carbon production methods and must be substantially scaled up. 
• The whole system benefits of hydrogen can only be realised through investment in hydrogen transport networks and storage. Prioritisation of the use of hydrogen for hard-to-electrify applications is needed. 
• Clarity is needed on how hydrogen pipeline networks will be developed and how existing gas infrastructure will be repurposed. 

Bioenergy supply 

• Bioenergy can play an important role in the decarbonisation of all sectors of the economy but, as sustainable resources are limited, end uses of bioenergy must be prioritised where they can offer the biggest whole system benefits. 
• Robust sustainability criteria are essential in ensuring maximum contribution to net zero from bioenergy, which is easier to assess for domestic supply chains. Reduced reliance on imports also reduces scope three emissions and strengthens security of supply. 
• BECCS technologies could act as a source of net negative emissions. If the biomass value chain is sustainable, bioenergy could have an important role to play in the future energy system in this area. 

Supply-side flexibility 

• Increased levels of renewables will also need increased levels of flexibility. Our pathways demonstrate the importance of the interactions between low carbon fuels and technologies, alongside hydrogen and electricity storage, interconnectors and demand side flexibility to deliver a balanced system. 
• Accelerating the development of hydrogen and CO2 storage facilities is required for security of supply. The timescales of developing large-scale hydrogen storage projects creates the risk of delays in the hydrogen value chain to develop production facilities, build transportation networks or switch fuels.  
• Policy support for energy storage is essential to help bring forward the investment needed for long-duration energy storage. With the retirement or conversion of unabated gas plants post-2030, delivering the levels of energy storage and low carbon dispatchable power needed for security of supply will be essential.