Extreme Weather and Climate Modelling (Dunkelflaute)

Project summary

With wind and solar power increasingly vital to the GB energy system, understanding extreme weather events that could drastically affect power production and consumption is crucial.

Name Status Project reference number Start date Proposed End date
Extreme Weather and Climate Modelling (Dunkelflaute) Live NIA2_NESO093 Jul 2024 Dec 2025

 

Strategy theme Funding mechanism Technology Expenditure
Net zero and the energy system transition NIA_RIIO-2 Modelling £50,000
Summary

With wind and solar power increasingly vital to the GB energy system, understanding extreme weather events that could drastically affect power production and consumption is crucial. Dunkelflaute events, which cause simultaneous low wind and solar power production, are raising significant concerns among stakeholders. 

This project aims to address knowledge gaps regarding the likelihood and impact of Dunkelflaute events and cold spells, both separately and together, especially during peak electricity demand. By improving our models and assumptions, the project will enhance the accuracy of our Future Energy Scenarios, ensuring we are better prepared to manage Dunkelflaute periods effectively. 

Benefits

This project addresses critical gaps in understanding the likelihood and impact of Dunkelflaute events, ensuring NESO is well-prepared to incorporate these risks into future energy scenarios. It will strengthen our ability to communicate weather-related risks to stakeholders and provide evidence to support industry discussions on risk appetite, such as whether to build flexibility for extreme cases. By improving system resilience to Dunkelflaute events, this work will contribute to a more stable and reliable energy supply for GB. 

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