Electrification of the residential heat sector: Spatial and temporal analysis of electricity demand and flexibility

The large-scale uptake of heat pumps to decarbonise the GB residential heat sector is expected to significantly impact the magnitude and shape of the electricity demand profiles at different spatial scales. Aggregate electricity demand profiles of heat pumps for regions are different due to varying characteristics of the housing stock that affect number and size of heat pumps that can be installed. This will lead to different level of network reinforcement needs at different Bulk Supply Points (BSPs).   
Key objectives of this projects are:  

• To estimate half-hourly electricity demand profiles for heat pumps at different spatial scales such as LA and national, for selected future scenarios.  
• To quantify technically available flexibility from electrified residential heat 

Benefits

• Improved temporally and spatially resolved data on electricity demand needed for heating residential buildings in future years.  This will be used to inform the ESO Future Energy Scenarios (FES). 
• Flexibility that can be exploited due to thermal inertia of buildings will be quantified. We don’t currently have the ability to model this. 
• More robust heat pump demand profiles, informed from observed trial data.  Our current heat pump profiles are derived from gas boiler thermal demand profiles, evidence suggests these are not optimal. 
• Improved analysis and insights of peak demands and flexibility. 

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