Gas Network Capability Needs Report (GNCNR)

The Gas Network Capability Needs Report (GNCNR) is our first publication under our new gas licence obligations. It presents our first independent view of Great Britain’s (GB) gas transmission system – the National Transmission System (NTS) – capability to meet current and future network requirements.

The analysis of the physical capability of the NTS has been carried out using the Future Energy Scenarios (FES), with three net zero pathways and a counterfactual scenario.

In order to determine the NTS capability needs, a ‘probabilistic range’ of supply and demand was developed by taking into account uncertainties such as weather, day of the week, and historical data.

As we have carried out our analysis and developed the GNCNR, we have engaged with various stakeholders to ensure that we reflect the views of wider society participants. The analysis has considered the resilience of gas network components, particularly emphasising the compressors. Stakeholders have highlighted the need for a reliable gas network and highlighted the availability of these essential components.

We will continue the conversation with our stakeholders to ensure that their views are reflected within our future assessments.

The GNCNR represents a stepping-stone towards building a Centralised Strategic Network Plan, which will set out a coordinated, multi-vector approach to long-term network planning across GB that will accelerate the development of the Government’s net zero ambitions.

What are the next steps in the process?

The findings within the report will be used by National Gas Transmission to propose network reinforcement options in the Strategic Planning Options Proposal. Subsequently, NESO will evaluate any proposed reinforcement options and create a Gas Options Advice Document in 2025.

This two-yearly cycle will allow for gas network capability needs to be identified and network reinforcement options to be developed and assessed.

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