Electric vehicles
If you haven’t thought about EVs yet, you soon will. We predict there’ll be up to 37.4 million of them on the road by 2050.
Most major governments have already committed to ban the sale of new petrol and diesel cars – in the UK the deadline for this is 2030. It’s all part of the UK’s drive to net zero by 2050, and at NESO we’re at the heart of this transition.
We know switching to EVs will help. They’re not only fuel efficient, EVs can be powered solely by renewable power, with smart charging showing the best times of day to use green electricity.
Despite their green credentials you’ll still have questions about EVs. How and where do I charge the vehicle, will it reliably get me from A to B – and what about those long drives to the coast? And do lorries, buses and aviation – have an electric future too?
We explore and explode the myths of EVs, look at the upsides, glance at the downsides, and take you on a fully electrified journey towards the future of driving.
We estimate that up to 37.4 million Electric Vehicles (EVs) will be on UK roads by 2050 – that’s a huge increase on today, where there are fewer than 1 million.
Such numbers will see EVs playing an important role in transforming the electricity system, with things like smart charging, ‘vehicle to grid’ technology and charging behaviour key to helping bring down carbon emissions.
Let’s take a look at how electrifying the way we get from A to B and beyond will help the UK on its journey to a net zero 2050.
Charging behaviour
When, where and how consumers top-up their vehicles is vital.
Our studies show that around 75% of owners charge at home, and as this is likely to remain the case for those who can, it raises the question of when consumers will plug-in.
Will they plug in frequently and top-up charge (grazing)? Or will they plug-in less frequently and top up from close to empty (guzzle)? Plugging in more frequently could have flexibility benefits for the energy system.
Flexibility will be essential to encourage consumers to change their consumption patterns through what is known as a Time of Use Tariff (ToUT). This will create a financial incentive for consumers to change their charging to a time when the rate is cheaper and electricity is greener.
In the future, charging behaviour will change as many consumers will likely play little part in actively managing their charging and will rely on their supplier to do this for them. They will just plug their cars in when parked up and then drive off when they want to.
In 2023 the road transport & rail sector used 407 TWh of energy, accounting for 33% of total consumer energy demand in Great Britain and 23% of the UK’s greenhouse gas emissions.
What is smart charging?
Put simply smart charging is charging a vehicle within a time slot, usually overnight but not always, to avoid high demand periods on the system and taking energy when demand from other uses is lower - similar to how economy 7 heating works. Smart charging technology also helps consumers draw energy from the grid when there is surplus power, which is usually cleaner and cheaper, to help balance the grid.
What is vehicle to grid (V2G)?
Vehicle to grid is the next stage on from smart charging. The idea is that electric vehicle owners will have a smart charging point that can talk to our technology via their energy supplier. EV owners can then automatically charge their car batteries when there is extra renewable power available and offload electricity when there is too much.
Combining smart charging and vehicle to grid technology means the EV owner simply sets a minimum charge for their battery (enough to get them to work and back, for example) and if the system requires a boost overnight, we can draw electricity from their battery – they will be paid for this of course!
Once the peak in demand has been satisfied, the charge will be returned.
This power sharing idea also has the possibility to be used commercially too. Like using electric cars parked at airports or a fleet of commercial vehicles, which are normally parked overnight, to help manage the ups and downs of renewable electricity generation.
Please see below the details for the 2050 electricity demand for road transport:
2050 Net Zero Pathway electricity demands: Electric Engagement – 127 TWh, Hydrogen Evolution – 101 TWh, Holistic Transition – 122 TWh, AVERAGE OF THE 3 PATHWAYS = 117 TWh
As more consumers start to own Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs), smart charging and V2G uptake will help manage the rise in renewable energy on the electricity system.
V2G will need to provide some incentives for the consumer to provide energy back to the grid.
There are challenges too of course. Because not all vehicles are always connected to the system, the available storage capacity from EVs varies in a way that differs from traditional energy storage systems.
And reaching net zero is about more than EVs. The biggest impact consumers can have on the efficiency of the transport system is doing less miles in their cars, and choosing active or public transport instead.
At NESO, we believe policy makers can help enable consumers make these choices by considering things like cycle routes, public transport funding and vehicle taxation. See our Future Energy Scenarios for more details.
Powerloop: trialling vehicle to grid technology
In 2022 we collaborated with the Octopus Energy Group on a trial to understand the viability of domestic EVs playing a role in our energy balancing activities through vehicle to grid (V2G) technology. The trial was the first of its kind for the British energy system, linking actions in our Electricity National Control Centre to end consumer’s EV charge points.
It explored how altering charging and discharging schedules of individual households could offer us a greener, cheaper way to balance the energy system, while protecting customers’ preferences. The trial was a proof-of-concept piece with two high level objectives:
- Understand the viability of entry into the Balancing Mechanism (BM): Looking at the aspects of the BM framework and obligations that currently act as a barrier for V2G enabled EVs to enter this market
- Demonstrate the capabilities of V2G enabled EVs: Proving the capabilities of V2G enabled EVs when working in a BM framework, gathering insights into their ability to respond to instructions and the commercial viability of an asset of this type when compared against the current market
Although the trial centred on V2G enabled EVs, the findings and conclusions drawn from the report are applicable to all types of EV smart charging, as well as offering a good insight into other flexible domestic assets.
Below is the technical report covering all aspects of the trial. Alongside this there is a short animation explaining how domestic EVs could play a role in balancing the energy system of the future.
If you have any questions regarding the report and trial, please email [email protected].
We’ve been hearing about electric vehicles (EVs) for a while now and with the UK government banning the sale of all diesel and petrol cars by 2030, EVs need to be the ‘now’ rather than the future. But as far as a tipping point goes, we’re not there yet.
The lowdown on EVs
Our latest Future Energy Scenarios says we’ll have up to 37.4 million electric vehicles on the road by 2050 – that’s when the UK aims to be net zero.
Reducing the energy demand from transport is key to achieving these goals.
So what’s the hold up? It could be down to consumer confidence. Price and ‘range anxiety’ are sited as concerns for potential EV buyers.
To help you understand a bit more and bring you up-to-speed with the here and now, let’s take a look at some of the common questions around EVs.
EVs are much more fuel efficient than petrol or diesel cars, so that’s a tick. They use a third less energy compared to traditional vehicles and don’t produce harmful CO2 emissions.
It's true that producing an EV currently has higher carbon emissions but studies show that this is paid back relatively quickly. At around 16k to 19k miles, which is less than three years usage at the current average annual car mileage.
Electric cars also have an important part to play in building a greener electricity system.
As more of our electricity from renewable sources, the battery inside an electric car can be used to store this green energy, rather than letting it go to waste.
New vehicle to grid technology can also see electric cars give electricity back to the grid in times of high demand, so that we don't have to turn on power plants that burn fossil fuels. Read more about this in our EVs and electricity explainer.
One of the main concerns around EV ownership is what’s called ‘range anxiety’.
Early electric cars couldn’t travel too far without needing to recharge, but the battery technology has evolved a lot since then.
Some electric cars can now do well over 200 miles before needing to plug in. If you have to do more miles than that in a day, you will need to plan your journey to allow for recharging time. But this may take less than ½ hour – and the RAC and safety organisations advise that you should take a break anyway if driving for such a long period anyway.
Most motorway service stations now have public charging points, so you should be able to find somewhere to top up along the way (while you grab a coffee).
The initial cost of buying an electric car may be a little higher compared to buying a fossil fuelled car, however they can work out much cheaper over time.
The cost of recharging the battery is lower than refuelling using petrol or diesel, and if you are smart about when you plug in, you can make the most of cheaper electricity.
If you have solar panels at home to produce your own electricity, it's even cheaper and greener to top up your battery.
The running costs of an electric car are lower too as the road tax is currently zero and the cars can need less repairs and servicing, because there are fewer mechanical parts to go wrong.
You don’t need to have a charging point installed in your house to own an electric car.
The charging network is growing all the time and there may be lots of local options available to you.
Some councils are adding charging points to lampposts, so your car could charge while it was parked on your street. Many more workplaces are including electric car charging points in their staff parking areas too.
If you need further information, you can find out the locations of all your nearest charging points online, on websites such as Zap Map. You may be surprised how many charge points are in your locale.
Most manufacturers warranty the battery for 8 years so you have a level of comfort if you’re buying new, or leasing.
It’s true that the battery for an electric car loses some of its capacity each year and this can put people off buying one. But most vehicle parts erode or age over time.
If you’re buying a second-hand EV, the battery is something you’ll look to consider – as would other main parts you’d look into when making any vehicle purchase, EV, hybrid, petrol or diesel.
The recharge network is flourishing, as sales of electric cars continue to rise.
There are currently around 42,000 charge point connectors across the UK in over 15,500 locations.
There are a few types of recharging stations to look out for - first there’s fast chargers.
These take around four hours to fully recharge an electric car and are widely called ‘destination chargers’ as they are found in places where you would typically park for a longer period of time, such as at the supermarket or at a train station.
Secondly there are rapid chargers, which can top an electric car’s battery up in 30 minutes. These are mainly installed at motorway service stations.
But it will depend on what type of EV you own. And often, you won’t need to fully charge your car (just like you may not always put a whole tank of fuel in your vehicle), so an EV top-up of around 100 miles could be done in 20 minutes.
Check online charging point maps to find details of your nearest fast or rapid chargers.
Ask any electric car driver and they will tell you how much they enjoy driving their electric car!
As they’re battery powered and don’t rely on mechanical parts, the power is instant when you accelerate and there are no gears to change, as they are all automatics.
The lack of gears means that some people find them a more relaxed drive – you just need to worry about accelerating and braking.
But an electric car might not be the right choice for everyone yet, such as people who do a lot of miles per day or those who don’t currently have any charging infrastructure near them. Overall though they are a stylish (some of the latest models use the latest and best tech and look and drive fantastic) and a clean alternative to petrol and diesel cars.
Fact: Electric cars do not have gearboxes!
One way to find out If they are right for you is to try one. The Electric Vehicle Experience Centre in Milton Keynes allows you to do just that
Electric cars make almost no noise and this can cause issues for other road users – such as pedestrians and cyclists – who use the sound of the engine to know if a car is nearby.
To prevent accidents, electric car drivers need to be wary of other road users and especially vigilant around pedestrians.